Updated on March 30, 2020 10:33:40 AM EDT
There is no relevant economic data being released today, the only day of the week without at least one report. The rest of the week has five reports scheduled that may affect rates, including a couple of highly important releases. In addition to the traditional importance of some of this week’s data, the markets will be extremely interested in them since they start to cover the month of March. Recent reports mostly covered February, which predated the coronavirus outbreak here in the U.S. This week’s data will give us some insight into just how badly the pandemic is affecting the economy, making them more valuable to market traders than other reports we have seen this month.
Marchs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick off this week’s calendar at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. The New York-based Conference Board will post this index, giving us an indication of consumers willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that consumer confidence in their own financial situation is falling, it will indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. This is normally considered a moderately important release, but with so much else going in the markets right now it likely will not have much of an impact on trading or mortgage pricing. Forecasts are calling for a decline of approximately 20 points from February’s reading.
Overall, any day of the week may end being the most active for mortgage rates. As we have seen the past several weeks, it doesn’t take a major economic report for the markets to go crazy. That said, they will likely be paying more attention to the economic data this week than they have since the crisis began. We do have some reports scheduled this week that traditionally are considered potential market movers with the most important ones coming the middle and latter days. We have seen a downward trend in rates recently, which should continue for the immediate future. Still, if floating an interest rate, it would be wise to keep an eye on the markets and that can change at any time.
©Mortgage Commentary 2020